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Consumers Better but Durable Goods not So Good

Durable goods orders finally bounced back in October and rose 0.4% from September after two months of declines. Moreover, September losses are now smaller than initially reported. Gains were...

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Drop in Spending Not What It Appears

Personal income rose 0.3% in December, significantly faster than the 0.3% decline posted in personal consumption expenditures. Much of the weakness, however, was concentrated in the vehicle sector,...

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Consumers Paid Off Holiday Debt Early in 2015

Consumers took advantage of lower gas prices, paying off their holiday debt a month sooner. In the previous two years, consumers had taken until March to pay off holiday purchases on their credit...

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Consumers Catch Up on Spending

Personal consumption expenditures rose 0.4% in March after being revised up slightly for the previous month. The increase was 0.2% faster than the pace of inflation. Personal disposable income growth...

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Employment Expected to Pick Up

We expect payroll employment to rise by 220,000 in April after adding a negligible 120,000 in March. Private payrolls are forecast to account for 215,000 of those gains. Much, of course, will depend...

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Retail Sales Better than Headline Suggests

Retail sales were essentially unchanged in April after being revised up for the month of March. Much of the weakness can be traced to a drop in big-ticket spending last month as vehicle sales fell...

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Saving Rate Up, Inflation Slow

Income growth jumped a better-than-expected 0.4% in April. Disposable income rose a slightly more moderate 0.3%. All of those gains, however, were saved as consumers essentially tread water in terms of...

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The U.S. Consumer is Back

Personal consumption expenditures surged at a 0.9% pace in May and were revised up for the month of April. Personal incomes jumped at a 0.5% rate and were also revised up in April. The data on May,...

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Incomes Solid, Outlays Moderate

Personal disposable incomes rose 0.2% in the month of June after adjusting for inflation. The inflation-adjusted data on Personal Consumer Expenditures (PCE) were essentially flat. The numbers were not...

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Consumers Go Car Shopping

Personal disposable incomes rose 0.4% after adjusting for inflation in the month of July, faster than consumer spending, which edged up 0.3% during the month. The bulk of the rebound in consumer...

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Retail Revisions Bolster August Report

Retail sales rose 0.2% in August on strong vehicle sales and a sharp uptick in spending at restaurants and bars. That could be a sign of a broader gain in spending on services over the summer. Despite...

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GDP Data Put Yellen on Solid Footing

Real GDP was revised up to a 3.9% pace in the second quarter, 0.2% higher than previously reported. Average growth in the first half of 2015 is now tracking at 2.3%, well above the economy’s potential....

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Spending on Services Picks up

Personal consumer expenditures rose 0.4%, after adjusting for inflation in August; that was slightly faster than we saw in July and slightly above the inflation-adjusted rise in incomes for the month....

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Retail Sales Show Pockets of Strength

Retail sales rose a lackluster 0.1% in September, about in line with expectations, with ongoing strength in the vehicle sector offsetting the drag from a drop in gasoline purchases, which may be...

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Inflation and Wages Still Muted

Personal income and outlays both rose an inflation-adjusted 0.2% in September. Falling prices at the gas pump continued to buoy spending. The personal consumption expenditures (PCE) index, which more...

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Consumers Make Trade-offs

Real disposable incomes rose 0.4% in October, slightly faster than September, while inflation-adjusted spending rose a tepid 0.1% during the month, weaker than September, which was actually revised...

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Retail Sales Sparkle

Retail sales rose 0.2% in November, broadly in line with expectations. Excluding automobiles, gasoline, building materials and food services, core sales increased 0.6%. Vehicle sales remained at...

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Yellen’s Big Test

Yet another round of market jitters, triggered by plummeting oil prices (OPEC has lost control of the oil market) and related problems in the high-yield bond market have raised questions about whether...

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CPI Firms Year-on-Year

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) flattened out the during the last two months as falling prices at the gas pump pulled down the overall index once again. However, we are finally starting to see some...

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Consumers Power Ahead; Businesses Disappoint

Consumers jumped on discounts and credit to leverage their incomes in November, with spending slightly outpacing solid, inflation-adjusted, disposable income gains during the month. Spending on...

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